In spite of all policies, laws, democratic decisions and consultations a war broke out in Europe. ‘Gathering Storm’ again? Some compare the events and open conflict with the years just before WW-II, caused by many enmities and disagreements (see map Andersen) and say there is the need of stability pacts. Others say they have no opinion because of absence in knowledge about the history or they let know the skirmish are too far away. Finally there were people talking about the many different important interests (oil pipe-line, Black Sea importance and disunities within Caucasian civil societies). Reaffirmation of the commitment of all the parties to implement in full all the provisions of the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan of 12 August 2008:

1. Withdrawal of forces
2. International observation mechanisms
3. International discussions.

On International Women’s Day, the face of Georgia was a woman, bravely waving the EU flag against police water cannons. This woman seemed unstoppable and undefeatable in spirit, like the will of all Georgians who have been yet again taking to the streets to fight for their European choice.

A year ago it was street protests which pushed Georgia’s prime minister to apply for EU membership, and it is again the Georgian people, in line with the Georgian Constitution (Article 78), who are demanding that the government does not strip them of a European future.

Georgia, once the Eastern Partnership’s darling, has been struggling with democratic reforms over the past few years and an increasing amount of informal governance in the country, as well as the improper conduct of presidential and parliamentary elections since 2018, resulting in heightened political polarisation.

Yet building on its solid track record of implementing its Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU, the Georgian Dream-led government still planned to apply for EU membership in 2024 —until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed everything.

In 2022, even after Ukraine applied for EU membership, the prime minister still strongly supported  delaying Georgia’s application to 2024, but Georgians took to the streets until he U-turned and formally signed Georgia’s EU membership application. However, the application has been followed by many anti-democratic and anti-European statements and actions by the government, including the politically motivated arrest of journalists.

These actions essentially sabotaged Georgia’s EU membership application and it was denied official candidate status, unlike Moldova and Ukraine – a fact that is still deeply embarrassing for many, many Georgians.

Georgia has been handed a long list of priorities to be addressed before it can achieve official candidate status. The  government has started to address these priorities by organising parliamentary working groups and amending or passing new legislation.

But like the formal EU membership application, this process has again been sabotaged by the ruling party.  To name but a few of its actions, the third democratically-elected President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, remains in prison without access to proper medical treatment and the government has been busy pushing a Russian-style law on ‘Agents of Foreign Influence.’ The law, if it had passed (it was just dropped during its second reading due to the protests), would have obliged NGOs and media representatives to register as foreign agents if they received at least 20 % of their funding from abroad.

This bill resembled a Russian law adopted in 2012 which led to the gradual rooting out and elimination of many civil society and media organisations. Given the fact that civil society and media representatives are already facing threats from the government, the adoption of this law would have curtailed basic freedoms, thus also threatening Georgia’s European future and EU aspirations. If adopted, it could have had serious repercussions on EU-Georgia relations, as had been stated by Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy.

For Georgians this would have been simply unacceptable. For them there is no alternative to Georgia’s European future – it is their choice and they are standing firm. Russia, including Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, remains a factor here, and its economic sanctions and coercive measures have only strengthened Georgians’ belief that for them there is only one future, a European future.

This is a belief that brought thousands of people onto the streets. And it was their determined unity under the EU flag, facing the police’s water cannons, pepper spray and tear gas, that forced the government to change course and immediately drop the bill during the second reading.

Make no mistake about it, this is a big win for the Georgian people and rekindles the hope that Georgia will not be lost to Russia, Russian-style laws, and a Russian-backed oligarch who has been the de facto ringleader of all this political backsliding.

For Georgian Dream, it has always been about having and keeping power. This is why it did not shy away from breaking the hard-won Charles Michel Agreement and from rejecting the EU’s macro-financial assistance.

But it has always been afraid of the true threat to their power – the people.

This is why their actions have been both confusing and two-faced, on the one hand pleasing a Russia-backed oligarch by slowly – but systematically – moving Georgia away from its democratic path, and on the other hand, continuing to reiterate their commitment to Georgia’s European integration.

Attempting to walk a fine line between the two, Georgian Dream has been regularly testing  boundaries. This law was yet another test of public tolerance over their efforts to steer Georgia towards Russia.

Luckily, they’ve failed. Again.

They failed in 2019 when street protests led to the resignation of the Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, after he allowed Russian MP Sergei Gavrilov to take his seat in the Georgian Parliament. They failed last year when the prime minister changed his mind and signed off on the application for EU membership after seeing large-scale protests unfolding in the streets of Tbilisi. And they failed in every attempt to deter Georgians from uniting with the Ukrainians in their fight against Russia, on the frontline and at home.

As President Zelensky noted already a year ago: ‘There are times when citizens are not the government, but better than the government.’ Today, this is clearly the case with Georgia. The Georgian people have also now convinced President Macron that Georgia belongs as part of the EU, while several months ago he stated that Georgia was in a ‘different place geopolitically’.

Georgia may lack strong democratic institutions but the will of the people has prevailed repeatedly in the highest spirit of democracy and European values.

People like the woman mentioned at the very beginning of this commentary, who stood bravely in front of the water cannons and police intimidation, are proudly waving the EU flag as a reminder that Georgia’s European future does not belong to the government or any political party. It belongs to the Georgian people – and no one can ever take that away from them.

The war had its roots in long-standing Russia instrumentalisation of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a bargaining chip to influence Georgia's domestic policy. Above all, it was used as a tool to prevent Georgia from further strengthening ties with the West. Yet Russia could not offer the Georgians any viable path for social, political, and economic modernisation. Frustration mounted leading to the 2003 Rose Revolution and the ousting of the regime of Eduard Shevardnadze. Saakashvili, who rose to power after the revolution, tried to achieve two key objectives simultaneously, reunification of South Ossetia and Abkhzia, and the westernization of Georgia.

Domestically, he tried to make the Georgian-controlled part of South Ossetia a showcase for economic and social modernisation (by entrusting Dimitri Sanakoev with the government of the region). He hoped that the successful Georgian modernisation process would lead for Ossetians in Tskhinvali to demand the same sooner or later, opening the path for re-unification. Internationally, he thought his reform course would enjoy Western support.. He was wrong on both fronts. South Ossetia was and is firmly within the iron grasp of the Communist Party of Ossetia, totally dependent on Russian financial aid and Russian security services. Regardless of what the Ossetians might have wanted, South Ossetia was, de-facto, a Russian colony, unable to make its own decisions.

Since 2006, Russia's defence establishment frequently aired the idea that a situation might occur in Georgia that would force Russia to intervene and so Russia was well prepared to intervene.

On 7th August, Russian deployment to South Ossetia began. Fatefully, the Georgian leadership attempted to pre-empt further Russian aggression and advanced into Ossetian territory. In doing so, they allowed Russia to claim that Georgian aggression started the war. On the afternoon of the 8th, the Georgian advance came to a halt without advancing to the Roki Tunnel – the vital line of communication from Russia to South Ossetia. On 9th August the Russian Air Force started to strike deep into Georgian territory, while Russian paratroopers and mechanised forces started counterattacks on Georgian positions.

On 10th August the Georgian positions were shattered and Georgian forces expelled from the hills around Tskhinvali. Five Russian motorised rifle regiments, two airborne regiments and units from four different reconnaissance and Special Forces brigades faced off against two Georgian brigades. From here the Russian military offence concentrated on Gori, in the Kura Valley. On the August 10th Western diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire started, putting pressure on Russia. The same day Russian troops opened a second front in Abkhazia, making considerable progress due to the lack of Georgian preparations in the area.

On the Ossetian front, Russian troops entered Gori on the 13th, one day after then French President Sarkozy secured both Russian and Georgian signatures on a ceasefire agreement.

Europe and the west drew very few lessons from the conflict. Saakashvili's mistake in participating in the Russian policy of escalation served as a major fig-leave for the west to restore “business as usual” policy with Russia. The very limited Russian information operation were effective in influencing Western (particularly German) public opinion, which soon tilted towards the Russian version of the events.

Ukraine is, compared to Georgia, much more capable militarily. Further Russian military advances would not remove Ukraine from the political map of Europe – at least not quickly. But that's not necessarily true for Georgia. With Russian troops having increased their capabilities and operational tempo significantly after 2008, a renewed Russian-Georgian war would probably be fatal for Georgia. In both countries, the West has no clear concept of how to deal with the respective, long-term EU and NATO membership aspirations of these countries. While after Georgia the West became cautious not to be caught up in regional military struggles, both conflicts show that refraining from meaningful support will be interpreted as an opportunity to escalate in Moscow. Short of formal EU membership, the association agreements provide some framework for developing closer relations between the EU, Georgia and Ukraine respectively. But in the dimension of hard security, European foreign policy has a void that Russia knows to exploit skilfully.

The 2012 elections in Georgia have led to a change of power which the Western-oriented party of President Saakashvili diametrically opposed to the currently reigning Russian oriented party of Prime Ivanishvili. In various policy a dialogue has started, but a consensus on the domestic direction remains off with negative implications for the international credibility of the country.

A change of government is never an easy task and is rarely smooth. This certainly applies to Georgia where the 2012 national elections were identified as free and fair by international observers. The ruling party of President Saakashvili was replaced by a new coalition of parties, Georgian Dream (GD), led by the new Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili. For many watchers from home and abroad that came as a big surprise.

Changing of the power monopoly
Ivanishvili has played a major role in breaking the power of the United National Movement (UNM) of Saakashvili. The multi-billionaire - and richest person in Georgia - knew to bring the opposition a flag and moreover, he had sufficient means to finance a decent campaign. In the election campaign, he could conveniently anticipate the (social) unrest in the country and the protests against the way the UNM hitherto exercised power. Who that time was not affiliated with the ruling party had difficulties. It is unfortunately not uncommon in countries like Georgia that the party that controls the government is trying to establish a monopoly of power, leaving little room for the opposition. The GD coalition threatens to succumb to this temptation too. The UNM already complaining about the fact that its members are put under pressure and that some former government officials are unjustly persecuted. It is too early to assess whether the fear of the current opposition party UNM is justified, but only watchfulness looks at her place, even on the part of the international community.

It is unwise to thereby immediately take sides. Ivanishvili had to answer a few complaints from the ranks of the European Parliament stated in its response that he was walking a thin line balancing: one demands its followers righteousness, but on the other hand, he wants not a hunt for the former rulers. Hopefully he can maintain this balancing act. When the cord breaks Georgia can end up in the same situation as Ukraine, where the EU is extremely concerned about the quality of law. That would be the talks between Georgia and the EU on an Association Agreement and a Deep Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement into question.

Constitution as power
Another important point is the internal conflict constitution. Under the previous government of Saakashvili has changed dramaically so that in the future the most power in the Prime Minister will lie and therefore the parliament. The UNM trusted that again would achieve a majority in parliament and so without Saakashvili as president - not re-elected in the presidential elections of October 2013 - the power could maintain. That plan failed.

The changes in the constitution go into effect in the autumn. Until then, the current UNM President Saakashvili has considerable power resources such as the power of the government to appoint or to dissolve parliament. The latter means of power is used in discussions with the Government of Ivanishvili a form of cohabitation between the ruling party and the opposition Georgian Dream of the United National Movement. GD obviously wants to change the Constitution enters into force earlier. The negotiating demands the UNM amnesty in return for certain power violations of the past and a clear pro-EU and pro-NATO arrangement of the GD government.

Russia, Europe and NATO
The hard requirement for this Western orientation in foreign policy is dictated by the arrangement of Ivanishvili more friendly towards Russia, which suspiciously at being watched by the outside world. The Prime Minister is committed to a partial restoration of relations with the great Northern neighbor. The UNM contrast even demanded that the pursuit of integration into Euro-Atlantic structures in the Constitution should be recorded. This is no majority. GD was still sensitive to the criticism and decided together with the UNM a parliament resolution to which no doubt is left to the pro-European and pro-Atlantic orientation of Georgia. In the agreed international strategy is the highest priority to the search for joining the EU and NATO membership.

A majority of the parliament wants normalization of relations with Russia, but the diplomatic relations can only be restored when Moscow recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia undo. Also, Georgia no alliances with other countries that have recognized the two separatist republics. In practice this means that a full restoration of relations with Russia is impossible and that Georgia will not join the Eurasian Union, the customs union formed by Russia, or the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the regional security.