Initiated by aggressions and possible future changes in US administration The reform of the European Union is becoming increasingly unavoidable writes Paul N. Goldschmidt in a recent article.

The outcome of the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East is rightly seen as crucial to the survival of Ukraine and Israel; it is just as crucial to the future of Europe and the survival of the EU and its values. Whatever the outcome of the US presidential election, the development of alternatives must start now (similar to the planning of a military operation) to avoid being caught unprepared should the United States revise its global positioning. This involves speeding up the creation of a European defense pillar within NATO, rearming its forces, mobilizing its capacity to produce military equipment to be financed by the EU budget. These imperatives can only be met within a reformed and revitalized EU, all conditions which should encourage the Member States to consider, constructively and show the necessary unity to implement a fundamental revision of the existing treaties.

(*) a French jurist and political philosopher, member of the Parlement of Paris and professor of law in Toulouse. He is known for his theory of sovereignty.

Step back in time and explore the significant moments in the history of the European Union by visiting the very places where they occurred! The historical sites offer a glimpse into the EU’s past, but also provide an opportunity to look into the EU’s future and the role it plays in shaping the world today.

17/05/2024 AT 05:30 , Has China won? asks Kishore Mahbubani in one of his latest bestsellers. The answer is: "No - at least not yet".

JAN LUND, JYLLANDS-POSTEN'S CORRESPONDENT IN BANGKOK, SINGAPORE

Europe lives in a world that no longer exists. The world is now in the Asian century. In this new century, Europe has lost itself, lost its leadership skills, and lost the ability to operate strategically in an increasingly complex global landscape. These were some of the main messages from one of Asia's leading intellectual voices when I spoke to him in May 2024.

The 75-year-old Kishore Mahbubani is a career diplomat from Singapore who spent 33 years at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Among other things, he served as Singapore's ambassador to the UN for more than 10 years, with two terms as chairman of the Security Council. He then spent 13 years as Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. On the more intellectually grounded global stage, he is a familiar face from hundreds of conferences, debates, TV interviews, and articles. To the general public, he is best known as a successful author with a handful of international bestsellers behind him, from his breakthrough in 1998 with the sensational »Can Asians Think?« to »Has China Won?« from 2020. The latest addition is the German publisher Springer's »The Asian 21st Century« from 2022. It is an open-source book which can be downloaded for free, though it can also be purchased in print.

"When I asked the publisher how many downloads they expected, they said they would be happy with 20,000. It has now been downloaded 3.5 million times in 160 countries," says Mahbubani in his corner office on the 7th floor of the NUS Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, where he is housed at the Asia Research Institute think tank.
His point is that now, a quarter into what he argues is the Asian century, there is massive interest all over the world to understand what this shift means for the rest of the planet. He believes that it is especially important to make Europe understand that the Asian century is here, because Europe, unlike Asia, Africa and Latin America, has still not grasped that the old world order no longer exists.

This is, for example, the shift that rolled across the international stage on Thursday with Vladimir Putin's visit to China. China and Russia consider themselves exponents of a new world order with many great powers in a balanced cooperation. They now trade with each other in rubles and yuan - not in dollars or euros. They are key players in two of the world's powerful new international organizations, the BRICS and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). Iran was admitted to both organisations in 2023, and when the BRICS hold a summit in Russia in October, it will be with the participation of a number of countries outside the old European and North American power structures.

Kishore Mahbubani grew up in Singapore as the son of impoverished Indian Hindus who had fled the province of Sindh during India's bloody partition in 1947. "When I was growing up in Singapore, the world looked up to Europe as the most advanced and optimistic societies that the rest of the world should try to emulate. Europe was an inspiration throughout my young life - even into a mature age. Now, surprisingly, Europe has become a pessimistic continent. The whole world is amazed at how Europe, which has been so successful for the last 200 years, has now lost its way, has lost its self-confidence, and does not seem to believe that it has a great future. It's a fundamental shift in the world, and the rest of the world is amazed at how and why Europe allowed this to happen," says the analyst, diplomat, and strategist, who attributes this historical trend to the lack of dynamic leaders in Europe and the loss of the ability to think and act strategically.

"It is clear that the democracies in Europe are not working in a very fundamental way, because people do not feel that their lives will improve. I must stress that I speak as a friend of Europe and that we in Asia only want Europe to prosper. But the world has changed fundamentally, and Europe needs to make some strategic and structural adjustments."

Can you see it happening?

"This will only happen if Europe wakes up and adapts to the new global landscape. In the 1960s, Europe's share of global gross domestic product was 30 percent. Now it's 20 percent. In 2050, it may be 10 percent. It is important to recognise that Europe's population is becoming relatively smaller. When your share of the world economy shrinks, you have to learn to adapt, adjust, and do things differently." "Let me give you an example: Since the 1940s, there has been a tradition for the head of the IMF to be a European and the head of the World Bank an American. It made perfect sense when Europe and America dominated the world. In the 1960s, none of the world's top 5 economies were Asian. Now three out of five are from Asia: China, Japan and India."

Power swings to Asia

"Power is swinging to Asia, so it would be wiser for Europe to say: ‘Now Asia accounts for a larger share of the global economy than Europe, so why don't we let Asia run the IMF?’ It makes sense. It is wiser to maintain the global infrastructure created by the West and then let others manage it. But doing so will require a long-term strategic mindset. It should also be in Europe's interest to strengthen the multilateral order and to cooperate with China. But this will require Europeans to explain to the Americans that they do not agree with the United States that the global market order must be weakened. It takes political courage on the part of Europe to oppose the United States. Europe does not have that courage. 

There are no longer strong leaders who say the things that should be said out loud," he says. He believes that weak European leaders do not dare to present the people with reality: "No one is honest about Europe's real challenges. Everyone just says that life is wonderful. Europe lives in a garden surrounded by a jungle. Europeans have a quality of life that is much better than that of others. It's true. But it is also true that they live with a great deal of uncertainty about the future. They should try to ensure that the jungle around them is improved and developed. Europe must have a policy that points to the future and, for example, engage more with Asia and Africa," says Mahbubani, and points out:

"It is quite clear that Europe's biggest long-term challenge does not come from Russia. It comes from Africa. In 1950, Europe's population was twice that of Africa. Now Africa's is 2.5 times larger than Europe's. By the year 2100, Africa's population will be 10 times larger than Europe's. Europe will have to deal with a massive demographic explosion in Africa. If Europe does not export jobs to Africa, Africa will export Africans to Europe.

But in order to create jobs in Africa, Europe must cooperate with other investors in Africa. And the number one investor is China. Europe should work with China to stabilise Africa. But instead, many Europeans want to follow the US policy of containing China. If the EU and the US succeed in containing China, then Europe will suffer - but the US will not."

The EU also has experience with illiberal democracies, and recent elections have further strengthened illiberal forces from the far-right. Threats such as these on both sides of the Atlantic could weaken democracy globally, posing a threat to the liberal world order that has held since the end of World War II. 

Whatever the outcome of the US elections, we will examine the implications for the EU going forward. Can the EU serve as a global champion of democracy if the US retreats? Can the EU increase its presence on the world stage and step in to fill a possible void left by the US? How would the EU respond to new security threats by authoritarian regimes emboldened by America’s inward shift?

The US elections and an uncertain future: implications for the EU (recording)

"To me, it is a mistake that Europeans see China as a threat. China is very far away. No Chinese army will come and invade Europe. Instead, China provides opportunities, at least for Europe. For example, China is developing African countries in Africa. It is a gift to Europe. That is why it is important for Europe to deal with China more carefully. After all, we don't know whether the United States or China will be number one in 20-30 years. But I think China will eventually become number one economically. And when China becomes number one, Europe has no fundamentally divergent interests with China. So why be locked in a position of struggle with China?"

You have recently said that Donald Trump as president is a greater threat to Europe than China?

"Donald Trump says very clearly what he wants. His philosophy is MAGA: Make America Great Again. It's not MEGA: Make Europe Great Again. I do not understand why Europeans do not understand this. In many ways, the American people are also tired of getting involved in other countries' affairs."

Is there a real risk that Trump will withdraw his support for the war in Ukraine, leaving Europe alone to face Russia?

"Europeans should honestly ask themselves: What could have been done to prevent the war in Ukraine? I know that it is too late now, but in geopolitics you always have to compromise. You cannot say to a power like Russia that they will not get anything. You have to compromise. Sometimes it's good to be pragmatic instead of ideological.

What will be done if Trump does not want to be involved in the war in Ukraine? Can Europe deal with Russia on its own? Europe needs to reset its strategic conceptions of the world. In addition to considering power-sharing in global organisations, Europe should also develop an independent policy towards Asia. It is OK for the United States to defend its interests in Asia. However, Europe should also have its own independent policy.
One part of the world that Europe should think about more seriously is South-East Asia. The most successful and best-coordinated regional organisation in the world is the European Union. The second most functional regional organisation is ASEAN. There should be greater partnership between the world's most successful regional organisations. Do not forget that one of the most important points that Europeans need to understand is that 200 years of Western domination of world history are coming to an end.

The 21st century will be the Asian century. Europe needs to learn to deal with different civilisations. Europeans are not in a position to do that right now. While the rest of the world is in full swing preparing psychologically for the Asian century, Europe still believes that we are in the century of the West. Europe must wake up and recognize that the rest of the world sees the world quite differently from Europe."

The title of your latest bestseller is "Has China Won?" – so HAS China won?

"The answer is no. Or more precisely: Not yet. It would be a great mistake to underestimate the United States. The United States is a formidably dynamic economy. After all, the biggest innovations are still happening in the United States. But China is a strong competitor. Look at artificial intelligence. There are only two countries in the race: the United States and China. Europe is not included.

Has Europe lost?

"Europe is definitely losing. That is why Europeans need to wake up. But it is very important that Europeans understand that the story of Asia is not just about China. China has 1.4 billion inhabitants - Asia has 4.5 billion. The story going forward is about what I call the new CIA. It does not stand for the Central Intelligence Agency, but for China, India, and ASEAN. That's 3.5 billion people. In the year 2000, only 150 million of them benefited from a middle-class standard of living. In 2020, the number of people in the middle class had exploded 10 times to 1.5 billion. In 2030, it will be 2.5 to 3 billion," says Kishore Mahbubani, with an overall point that China is well prepared for that scenario, while Europe has not even begun to think along those lines. "China always thinks long-term and strategically, while Europe thinks short-term in relation to the next election. It's a pretty big handicap."

Kishore Mahbubani

Kishore Mahbubani (24/10-1948) was born in Singapore to Hindus from the Sindh province who were forced to flee during the partition of the British crown colony of India in 1947. Career diplomat in Singapore's foreign service with secondments in Cambodia, Malaysia, and Washington DC and a period as head of the ministry. Singapore's ambassador to the UN from 1984 - 1989 and again from 1998 - 2004. In January 2001 and May 2002, he was President of the UN Security Council. From 2004 to 2017, he was Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

Kishore Mahbubani is behind an extensive body of work with a handful of international bestsellers, including: "Can Asians Think", "The Great Convergence", "Has China Won?", and most recently "The Asian 21st Century". He regularly appears as a keynote speaker at international conferences on international affairs. Affiliated with the think tank Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). His next book, "Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir," will be published in August.

The free world, where democracy and capitalism or moderate socialism prevails, should no longer turn a deaf ear to threats and harsh words from autocratic leaders. We should give us cause for concern, force us to awake and to take appropriate action.

EU politics



political logic of disintegration
(Ivan Krastev)

Lisbon Treaty

What is a directive and what does it do?

Cyprus | Germany |Slovakia | Croatia | Hungary | Malta |
Ireland | Italy | Poland
France | Romania | Greece | Czech Republic | Latvia | Netherlands

The
European Union

What it is and
what it does

Die Zeitenwende, von der Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz nach dem Überfall Russlands auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 sprach, hat erhebliche Folgen für Europa und die Europäische Union. Ursprünglich ein nach innen gerichtetes Friedensprojekt muss die EU nun seine Werte verteidigen und seine Unabhängigkeit und Stabilität auch nach außen sichern.

„Wir nehmen Russlands Angriff auf den Frieden in Europa nicht hin! Wir sehen nicht einfach zu, wie Frauen, Männer und Kinder umgebracht, wie freie Länder von der Landkarte getilgt werden“, sagte der Bundeskanzler in seiner Rede an der Prager Karls-Universität. „Unser Europa ist in Frieden und Freiheit geeint, offen für alle europäischen Nationen, die unsere Werte teilen. Vor allem aber ist es die gelebte Absage an Imperialismus und Autokratie“, so Scholz weiter. Aus diesem Grund werden Europa und Deutschland die angegriffene Ukraine weiterhin unterstützen: wirtschaftlich, finanziell, politisch, humanitär und auch militärisch – „und vor allem: so lange wie nötig“, so der Bundeskanzler.

In seiner Prager Rede nennt Scholz vier Bereiche, die aus seiner Sicht zentral für eine geopolitische Europäische Union sind. Denn Europa sei heute gefordert wie nie.

„Ich setze mich ein für die Erweiterung der Europäischen Union – um die Staaten des Westbalkans: um die Ukraine, um Moldau und perspektivisch auch um Georgien“, sagte der Bundeskanzler zu Beginn. Die Erweiterung der EU sei notwendig, um die Stabilität innerhalb Europas zu sichern und die gemeinsamen Werte zu schützen.

Der Europäische Rat hat der Ukraine und Moldau im Juni den Kandidatenstatus verliehen und ihn Georgien in Aussicht gestellt. Nun gelte es, die Beitrittsversprechen ernst zu meinen. Die Kandidatenländer verdienten konsequente Unterstützung auf ihrem Weg, sich beitrittsfähig zu machen. Seit fast 20 Jahren warteten die Staaten des Westlichen Balkans auf den Beitritt.

Gleichzeitig müsse eine erweiterte Europäische Union mit 30 oder 36 Mitgliedstaaten ihre eigenen Entscheidungsstrukturen verbessern, um handlungsfähig zu bleiben. „Dort, wo heute Einstimmigkeit erforderlich ist, wächst aber mit jedem weiteren Mitgliedstaat auch das Risiko, dass ein einzelnes Land mit seinem Veto alle anderen am Vorankommen hindert“, so der Kanzler.

Neben mehr Mehrheitsentscheidungen statt Einstimmigkeit im Rat warb Scholz für eine neue Balance für die Zusammensetzung des Europäischen Parlaments, mit einer Kommission, die weiter ein Kommissionsmitglied pro Mitgliedstaat umfasst, sich aber intern effizienter organisiert. 

Spätestens der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine hat gezeigt: Europa müsse unabhängiger und stärker werden. In seiner Rede forderte der Kanzler deshalb, einseitige Abhängigkeiten schnellstmöglich zu beenden. Mit dem Ausbau weltweiter Handelsbeziehungen, diversifizierter Lieferbeziehungen und einer echten europäischen Kreislaufwirtschaft könne Europa die nötige Souveränität erreichen.

Der Bundeskanzler sprach sich für ein selbstbewusstes Europa aus, das Vorreiter bei wichtigen Schlüsseltechnologien werden solle, zum Beispiel bei der Mikrochip-Produktion oder in der Mobilität. Konkret forderte Scholz eine „Strategie 'Made in Europe 2030'". Im Vergleich mit dem Silicon Valley oder chinesischen und japanischen Anbietern müsse sich Europa „an die Spitze zurückkämpfen". Viele Rohstoffe wie Lithium, Kobalt oder Nickel seien in Europa vorhanden. Außerdem solle die Klimaneutralität bis 2050 Priorität bleiben. Mit einem EU-Energiebinnenmarkt, einem EU-Wasserstoff-Netz, einer Ladeinfrastruktur für PKW und LKW und Investitionen in klimafreundlichen Flugverkehr sei dies zu erreichen.

Zeitenwende, ein außenpolitischer Weckruf

Mit Blick auf den Krieg in der Ukraine forderte der Kanzler „ein besseres Zusammenspiel unserer Verteidigungsanstrengungen“. Die NATO bleibe zwar der „Garant unserer Sicherheit“, dennoch gelte es, die außen-, sicherheits- und verteidigungspolitischen Strukturen Europas zu stärken.

Drittens: Alte Konflikte überwinden, neue Lösungen wagen

Der Bundeskanzler rief die EU in Prag zu noch mehr Geschlossenheit auf: Alte Konflikte gelte es zu überwinden und neue Lösungen zu finden. Die Migrations- und die Finanzpolitik seien als zentrale Bereiche beispielgebend: Da Europa ein Sehnsuchtsort für viele Menschen in der Welt sei, brauche es eine realistische, vorausschauende Migrationspolitik. Dazu gehöre auch ein faires und krisenfestes Asylsystem mit einem wirksamen und rechtsstaatlichen Außengrenzschutz.

Legale Arbeitsmigration müsse gefördert, irreguläre Migration begrenzt werden. Drittstaaten, die bei der Rücknahme kooperieren, sollten im Gegenzug Wege legaler Migration erhalten; anerkannte Asylsuchende viel früher als heute in anderen Mitgliedstaaten Arbeit suchen dürfen. Gleichzeitig müsse Missbrauch effektiv unterbunden werden.

Scholz plädierte außerdem dafür, Rumänien, Bulgarien und Kroatien als Schengen-Vollmitglieder aufzunehmen, um den grenzfreien Schengen-Raum zu vervollständigen und zu stärken.

Viertens: Europas Werte verteidigen und den Rechtsstaat achten

Abschließend verwies Scholz in seiner Rede auf Europas Werte, die als Basis unseres Zusammenlebens zu schützen seien. Gerade die Rechtsstaatlichkeit sei „ein Grundwert, der unsere Union einen sollte“, sagte der Kanzler. Er machte deutlich, dass die Kommission künftig auch bei Verstößen gegen EU-Grundwerte Vertragsverletzungsverfahren einleiten können sollte, dass Blockademöglichkeiten im Artikel 7-Rechtsstaatsverfahren abgebaut und EU-Zahlungen künftig an die Einhaltung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit geknüpft werden sollten.

Denn, so der Bundeskanzler: „Zeitenwende, das muss für die europäische Politik heißen: Brücken zu bauen statt Gräben aufzureißen. (…) Die Bürgerinnen und Bürger erwarten von der EU ganz handfeste Dinge: mehr Tempo beim Klimaschutz zum Beispiel, gesunde Lebensmittel, nachhaltigere Lieferketten oder eben den besseren Schutz von Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern. Kurzum: Sie erwarten die ‚Solidarität der Tat‘“.

1. Two weeks ago Russia brought war back to Europe. Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine grossly violates international law and the principles of the UN Charter and undermines European and global security and stability. It is inflicting unspeakable suffering on the Ukrainian population. Russia, and its accomplice Belarus, bear full responsibility for this war of aggression and those responsible will be held to account for their crimes, including for indiscriminately targeting civilians and civilian objects. In this respect we welcome the decision of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to open an investigation. We call for the safety and security of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities to be ensured immediately with the assistance of the International Atomic Energy Agency. We demand that Russia ceases its military action and withdraws all forces and military equipment from the entire territory of Ukraine immediately and unconditionally, and fully respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence within its internationally recognised borders.

2. We commend the people of Ukraine for their courage in defending their country and our shared values of freedom and democracy. We will not leave them alone. The EU and its Member States will continue to provide coordinated political, financial, material and humanitarian support. We are committed to provide support for the reconstruction of a democratic Ukraine once the Russian onslaught has ceased. We are determined to increase even further our pressure on Russia and Belarus. We have adopted significant sanctions and remain ready to move quickly with further sanctions.

4. The European Council acknowledged the European aspirations and the European choice of Ukraine, as stated in the Association Agreement. On 28 February 2022, exercising the right of Ukraine to choose its own destiny, the President of Ukraine submitted the application of Ukraine to become a member of the European Union. The Council has acted swiftly and invited the Commission to submit its opinion on this application in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaties. Pending this and without delay, we will further strengthen our bonds and deepen our partnership to support Ukraine in pursuing its European path. Ukraine belongs to our European family.

5. The Council has invited the Commission to submit its opinions on the applications of the Republic of Moldova and Georgia.

Idea of Europe attacked
"After deliberately destructed the idea of Europe, it showed alternatives were not present. The right to achieve chaos, however, was fully exploited: lies, half truths and kept back information made and fed discontent amoung populations. Euromyths strengthened that emotion further. Compared to the events, happened in the 19th and at the beginning of the 20st century, not harmless and therefore unwise.

Tactics
Empty promises, great sense of drama, little sense of realism, a too simple representation of affairs, advocating easy solutions that do not work and fighting against ourselves was the atmosphere in which negative changes in the two eras were created.

Sensible people
But sensible people went the dialogue, turned the tide and arranged in time that politics and society took the right direction again. They saw advantage in the crisis and self-cleaning capacity, what put in motion the discussion about what kind of Europe, in stead of I want my country back. Now it has became a stronger Europe: